Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
