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A former special forces colonel, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is at Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he stated, in remarks that go beyond previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of minister for the military.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

Naturally for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and political instincts to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the 2024 election. He was promoted later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name was floated as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his supporters began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no opening at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a high flyer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”